即將擔任美國副總統的拜登（Joseph Biden）參議員在大選期間曾提出一個觀點；歐巴馬總統上任六個月內將面臨外國的挑戰以考驗其應變能力。拜登以1961年5月甫就職不久的甘乃迪總統與蘇聯領導人赫魯雪夫在維也納的峰會為例，說明「拜登理論」。但拜登刻意省略未詳細描述的是，許多學者及觀察家都認為該峰會上，過於斯文仍缺少外交經驗的甘乃迪對粗魯的赫魯雪夫之大放厥詞未能針鋒相對加以駁斥，被「看破手腳」而導致一年半後的「古巴飛彈危機」。1962年11月蘇聯秘密在古巴佈署可攜帶核武彈頭的飛彈，這個冒險舉措引起甘乃迪政府激烈反彈，甚至不惜一戰，逼迫蘇聯撤離飛彈。
如今歐巴馬將面臨何種挑戰？哪些國家將以何種議題威脅將在2009年1月20日就任總統的歐巴馬？每一位新任總統都面臨各種難題；布希總統在2001年9月11日遭遇恐怖份子對美國本土的慘烈攻擊，911事件後的反恐戰爭因而界定，主導並影響其八年內政、外交與國安政策。歐巴馬所面臨的挑戰有可能來自新的「情況」，有承繼自布希所遺留下來的「爛攤子」，倘處理不當，勢必成為新的危機。
一、 世界經濟風暴
目前美國和世界各國都面臨嚴重的經濟危機，亟須提出新的振興方案與各國同心合作來拯救美國與全球的經濟。當前經濟海嘯嚴重性與1929年的經濟大恐慌雷同，也是全球性的經濟/金融大災難。1933年1月上任的羅斯福（Franklin D. Roosevelt）總統提出一系列「新政」（New Deals），美國經濟才得以復興，也拯救西歐的經濟。
今天，所有工業國家面臨資本主義制度失敗與自由市場的崩潰，公權力不得不介入；美國與這些國家都必須提出新政力挽狂瀾。歐巴馬所任命的財經大臣享有崇高聲望，備受企業界與金融界信任與掌聲。他公開支持共和黨布希總統搶救美國汽車製造業三大龍頭，通用、福特與克萊斯勒的行動值得讚許，美國汽車製造業攸關其他行業，及三百萬人工作機會，如果見死不救，會讓更多公司倒閉，美國經濟勢必更嚴重衰退，國際金融海嘯更加氾濫。 歐巴馬已提出警告，美國與全世界遭遇空前經濟與金融浩劫，不是短期內（一、兩年）能夠克服，必須長期努力。
歐巴馬表示不會急功近利，抄短線，會全盤思考、提出治本方案與政策如發展替代能源的政策與投資，他也主張探討美國眾多金融與其他企業虧損倒閉造成經濟危機的基本原因，如何強化規範與監控的機制與措施，以防止與避免自由經濟帶動骨牌效應。
二、重整美國的威望
幾年來，美國與國際觀察家都指出「美國所主導的世界和平」(Pax Americana）時代已經結束，美國受到許多國家的挑戰已無法獨霸世界，國際地位漸漸腐蝕。除了列強（如中、俄、印度）崛起，布希總統陷入伊拉克與阿富汗戰爭的泥淖，國力衰退，及其「單邊主義」（unilateralism）「單幹」的傾向得罪不少盟邦，均加速美國領導權威的弱化。 歐巴馬對此有深刻的瞭解，而且以「振興美國的領導地位」（Renewing American leadership）為其優先目標。
歐巴馬是一個博覽群書、才智過人，對世界有廣泛與深入瞭解的卓越領導人；他深知如何把握新契機，迎接新挑戰。歐巴馬體會美國無法再獨力應付世界和平與戰爭及其他重要難題，所以他將強化「多邊主義」與盟邦的合作。 12月1日歐巴馬任命與他力爭民主黨總統候選人提名的希拉蕊參議員為國務卿，化敵為友。他不擔心希拉蕊「功高震主」，主要在考慮能力與適任與否。主管歐盟外交的索拉納專員（等同外長），對歐巴馬此一任命讚美有加，表示世界各國都樂見希拉蕊接掌美國外交，「她有魄力，是一位合適的人選，兼具能力、資歷及名望」。希拉蕊在記者會上表示，面對伊－阿戰爭、恐怖主義威脅，恢復美國聲望的挑戰上將全力以赴，引進歐巴馬承諾的美國外交新時代。
三、蘇俄的挑戰：入侵美國後院
「北大西洋公約」（簡稱北約）在美國主導下向東推進，即將進入俄國「後院」如喬治亞和烏克蘭。為了反制，俄國擬「以牙還牙」，向拉丁美洲擴張其勢力。 俄國對拉美延伸其勢力有政治、經濟與軍事等層面。政治方面，俄國拉攏反美政府，如古巴、桑定政權統治下的尼加拉瓜、委內瑞拉。
今年11月下旬俄國總統麥維德夫到委內瑞拉進行國事訪問與軍事強人查維斯總統簽訂多項合作協定。經濟方面，俄國能源觸角已開始進入南美；7月下旬，查維斯總統訪問莫斯科，與俄國總統麥維德夫晤談協調兩國能源政策並簽訂合作協約，由俄國二個國營石油與天然氣公司（Gazprom、Lukoil）與跨國公司TNK-BP協助開發委國Orinoco Belt地區天然氣。雙方已組成俄－委能源「財團」（consortium）合作生產及出售石油與天然氣。俄國能源公司計畫延伸其開發工作到波利維亞及厄瓜多的油田。最重要的是麥德維夫與查維斯簽訂核能合作協定，俄國承諾為委國建造核子反應爐，讓查維斯「進入核子俱樂部」（Hugo Chavez joins the nuclear club）「深化雙方戰略伙伴關係」。
今年7月間，查維斯在莫斯科訪問時，與總理普亭商談兩國軍事合作議題並簽訂「軍事技術合作」協定。俄方消息透露，莫斯科將提供超過十億元的軍事裝備，包括十套TOR－M1防空系統，及三艘柴油動力潛艦和幾艘水面上戰艦。幾年前委國已下了40億美元的訂單，採購蘇愷戰機、攻擊直昇機、坦克車與其他武器系統。
8月4日，查維斯在美洲廣播節目中宣布：「我們已接收24架蘇愷戰機」；他誇稱蘇愷戰機的飛彈遠勝過F-16戰機的飛彈，並警告美國第四艦隊不得進入委內瑞拉水域。強烈仇美的查維斯多次控訴美國派人殺害他並用進各種手段企圖推翻他。顯然他借助於俄國力量制衡美國與保護他的政權，而莫斯科則結合反美的查維斯並利用有豐富資源的委國作為在拉美擴張勢力的地盤，雙方各取所需。
本（12）月初，俄國艦隊包括核子動力的巡洋艦與數艘戰艦，遠渡重洋到南美洲，與委內瑞拉舉行聯合軍演。為數1600的俄國海軍與委國700多位海軍在委國外海進行巡邏和救援演習。兩國官員都表示演習並不針對第三國，但俄國媒體則毫不掩飾地說，這是對美國示威，俄國艦隊在南美就如同美國第四艦隊出現在黑海支持莫斯科的敵國喬治亞。 11月下旬麥維德夫除了訪問委國外，也訪問古巴、秘魯與巴西。冷戰期間，中南美洲只有古巴與俄國關係密切。
在21世紀俄國不遺餘力拉攏其他拉丁美洲國家與美國爭奪勢力範圍。一位觀察家表示，莫斯科給華府的信息是：如果美國繼續在俄國後院發揮影響力，俄國也有能力在美國後院展現勢力。如果美國不從波蘭撤離飛彈和停止北約的擴張，俄國也將在拉丁美洲增加其影響力，並做一些事來刺激美國。
今年7月俄國「消息報」（Izvestia）報導，為回應美國在東歐設置飛彈防禦系統基地，俄國軍方正考慮派長程轟炸機例行性飛往古巴。這則消息並未具體說明這種可攜帶核武的戰略轟炸機只是降落古巴加油或將留駐。7 月22日，美國空軍參謀長提名人史瓦茲將軍(Norton Schwartz)警告，如果古巴成為俄國轟炸機基地，俄國就超越美國「紅線」（Red line）。另一方面，8月4日俄國新聞通訊社Interfax引述普亭聽取副總理謝欽(Igor Sechin)訪問古巴的報告表示「我們應該恢復古巴及其他國家的地位」。
普亭強烈反對美國在捷克與波蘭佈署飛彈防禦系統並揚言俄國將不惜使用「軍事技術」措施，包括在俄波邊境佈署飛彈，恢復冷戰時在古巴的軍事基地，甚至佈署可攜帶核武器的轟炸機，均是反制和報復美國的手段。 歐巴馬政府是否不理會莫斯科的威脅概括承受布希的政策？本文曾提到「拜登理論」，歐巴馬總統上任不久後，似將面臨俄國對他領導與應變能力的考驗。
四、俄國反制北約擴張
俄國最痛心的是北約組織的擴張。冷戰結束，由蘇聯主導的「華沙公約」組織解體，與之對抗的「北約」並未「收攤」，而在美國主導下繼續向東擴張。外交學者指出，1989年，蘇聯「袖手旁觀」東西德和平統一的重要因素之一是，當年蘇聯領導人戈巴契夫（Mikhail Gorbachev）曾得到美國國務卿貝克（James Baker）的保證「北約不會向東延伸目前管轄範圍」（There will be no extension of NATO’s current jurisdiction）。
戈巴契夫被騙？美國政府領導人食言？不管如何，「北約」由美國政府策動東進，吸引了前「華約公約」成員國如波蘭、捷克、波羅的海三共和國，對俄國的國家安全造成相當的威脅。由於西方勢力的協助，前蘇聯成員國喬治亞與烏克蘭在2003-2004相繼發生「顏色革命」與改朝換代，兩國新領導人皆積極爭取加入「北約」與「歐盟」，尋求西方軍事、政治與經濟力量的保護。從地緣政治與經濟能源的觀點，喬治亞與烏克蘭對俄的重要性不言可喻，因而莫斯科也以各種手段予以反制與嚇阻。
事實上，普亭2000年當政後，其外交政策的一大重要目標就是反對和抗拒「北約」擴大，企圖分化「北約」的歐洲成員和美國，利用歐洲國家牽制布希政府擴大「北約」和建立飛彈防禦系統的政策。同時，普亭和江澤民使用共同語言，表示要尋求一個「多極」（Multipolar）的世界，挑戰由美國經濟力與權力所控制的「單極世界」結構(Unipolar structure of the world）。 1991年喬治亞共和國獨立後，就因領土與其他問題和俄國衝突不斷。蘇聯未解體前，莫斯科將南歐西夏（South Ossetia）與阿伯克茲亞（Abkhaziz）劃入喬治亞版圖，但這二個地區大部分居民是俄國人，說俄語，1991年後就吵著要脫離喬治亞。事實上，這二個地區享有高度自治，其第一步是要求獨立，之後加入俄國，莫斯科當然支持其訴求。
喬治亞在2003年「顏色革命」成功，親西方勢力取得政權，與俄國關係更加惡化。喬治亞新任總統薩卡希維利（Mikheil Saakashvili）是留學美國的年輕律師，極力主張加入「北約」與歐盟；它採用美國與以色列武器，軍事顧問與教官也來自美國與以色列，並派軍隊到伊拉克參戰，人數僅次於美軍和英軍。 喬治亞親美政策激怒莫斯科自不待言。普亭也加緊推動分裂與削弱喬治亞措施，公然支持南歐希夏與阿伯克茲亞獨立，並以保護俄國人民的安全為藉口，派「維安部隊」（Peace-Keepers）防守此二地區。
8月7日，喬治亞政府為維護領土與主權完整，進軍南歐希夏，收復首都茨欣瓦利(Tskhirvale)。薩卡希維利的冒進讓莫斯科「師出有名」，俄國海陸空部隊大舉出動痛擊喬治亞軍隊，不到一週，不但將其逐出南歐希夏並長驅直入喬治亞，控制幾個重要城市，準備向首都第比利斯（Tbilisi）推進，企圖推翻反俄政權。 俄－喬軍事力量不成比例，俄國大軍壓境，喬治亞潰不成軍不足為奇，但俄國以強大武力佔領以前加盟國並企圖推翻民選領導人不是單純俄、喬之間的問題。此衝突很快引起歐盟干預；要求俄軍撤出恢復衝突前的疆界。開始俄國虛以委蛇，簽了停戰撤軍協定，卻沒有放棄勝利成果的意願，果然，俄國政府接著宣布承認兩地區的獨立，完全不理會國際輿論。
俄國冷戰後遭受屈辱，普亭有強烈使命感要恢復往日超級大國的地位與光榮，出兵喬治亞只是牛刀小試，下一步可能對準烏克蘭。赫魯雪夫掌權時把克里米亞半島（Crimea）劃歸烏克蘭，目前人口二百萬，其中60％是俄國人，說俄語，極可能遭莫斯科利用，製造另一個「獨立國」。
烏克蘭內部政爭激烈，莫斯科亟力分化利用，烏克蘭總統尤申科積極尋求加入「北約」與歐盟，但並未受到「橙色革命」戰友季莫申科總理及其他黨派支持。
五、伊朗的核武
11月5日美國大選結果揭曉後，伊朗總統艾哈邁迪內賈德（Mahmoud Ahmedinejad）於11月6日史無前例拍電報向總統當選人歐巴馬致賀，他意有所指地表示歐巴馬當選反應布希的中東政策不得民心，並表示未來願意與歐巴馬政府交往與修好。
伊朗總統很明顯的是表錯情了，因為歐巴馬翌日記者會上被問到伊朗問題時，即不假詞色地表示，伊朗核武對世界是一大威脅，並呼籲國際社會向伊朗施壓促使其放棄核武野心。歐巴馬的回應讓伊朗政府大失所望，十一月八日伊朗國會議長拉里賈尼(Ali Larijani)在國營電視台批評歐巴馬，說他的言論反映其「走向錯誤的方向」（going to the wrong direction），只是再次搬弄布希對伊朗的強硬政策，如果美國要改變在中東地區的「不利」情勢，必須發送好的信號(send good signals)，世界需要美國外交政策的基本改變（fundamental changes）。
歐巴馬入主白宮後，伊朗核武將是令他頭痛的問題。許多專家擔心伊朗核武計畫與時俱進，如不即時遏阻，伊朗有可能成功研發和生產核子武器，將對波斯灣、中東甚至其他地區發生重大衝擊。以色列一直主張在伊朗核武計畫「超越紅線」前，動用武力摧毀伊朗核武設施，但美國另有其戰略思考。今年五月布希總統訪問以色列時，曾明告以色列領導人美國反對其對伊朗動武的計畫，並拒絕出售以色列所要求的攻擊伊朗核武設施所需某些武器系統。
如果武力不是選項，國際社會是否能夠以制裁手段遏止伊朗繼續研發核武？迄今聯合國安理會已通過三輪制裁案對伊朗施壓，但效果不彰。九月間，列強（安理會五常任理事國加上德國）代表在華府開會，商討下一步怎麼走？採取何種措施才能威脅或利誘伊朗停止提煉濃縮鈾。
7月19日，列強代表曾在日內瓦與伊朗代表進行談判，要求伊朗在兩週內做出具體回應，德黑蘭卻相應不理，列強亦無計可施。 列強當中分為兩個對立陣營；主張強硬制裁的美、英、法、德四國及反對制裁的中、俄。
9月19日華府會議以兩個階段進行，早上西方四國先開預備會，下午六國才一同開會，結果未能就第四輪的聯合國安理會決議時間或內容達成共識。國務院發言人Robert Wood向媒體宣布，六國將繼續尋求可能進一步「二軌」（制裁）措施，仍敦促伊朗接受歐盟六月所提出貿易與其他誘因，交換其停止提煉濃縮鈾。
9月15日，在維也納的聯合國專門機構國際原子能總署（International Atomic Energy Agency, 簡稱IAEA）發表報告批評伊朗不合作，抵制該署對伊朗核能計畫活動之調查，導致調查工作無法繼續進行。布希總統的國家安全顧問Stephen Hadley指出伊朗不肯配合IAEA的調查「令人擔心」，只能讓國際社會更加懷疑伊朗的核能計畫。
伊朗艾哈邁迪內賈德總統看法完全不同，他大言不慚對伊朗國營電視台Press TV說，IAEA的報告確認伊朗核武計畫是「和平用途性質」(peaceful nature)及伊朗與IAEA的合作「充分透明化」(full transparency)，並指責IAEA對伊朗核能的計畫有偏見，係根據西方情報機關的情資 在伊朗進行調查。
儘管聯合國安理會三次通過制裁決議，以外交及經濟壓力逼迫伊朗停止其提煉濃縮鈾和其他可能研發與製造核武的活動，但伊朗仍不為所動。因德黑蘭可繼續依靠多年來力挺伊朗的盟友－中國，及由於入侵喬治亞共和國而與西方鬧翻的俄國在安理會阻擋與拖延新的制裁決議案。
安理會能否通過第四輪制裁伊朗的決議？觀察家並不樂觀，有中、俄的呵護，新的制裁方案也是另一個沒有「牙齒」的決議，作用不大。 根據「美聯社」與「路透社」來自德黑蘭的電訊，伊朗主管原子能組織（Atomic Energy Organization）的官員Gholamreza Aghazadah 11月26日宣布伊朗已有5000個提煉濃縮鈾的「離心器」（centrifuges）在運作。此數目比八月間伊朗關稱宣稱的4000大幅增加，亦意味著伊朗核能計畫加速進行，毫不理會美國與歐盟的警告。Aghazadah 告訴媒體「在我們的字典裡找不到停止濃縮鈾的提煉這個字」。IAEA估計伊朗的目標是在一年之內裝設9000個離心器。
今年一月布希總統曾花了超過十天的時間訪問波斯灣和中東不少國家；布希風塵僕僕要「動員」他們一致對伊朗採取強硬政策，並改變與以色列關係。布希任務並沒有達成，因為中東國家也有自己的算盤，他們不認同伊朗的對外政策，但對伊朗有許多顧忌，不想因與伊朗敵對而受到報復。伊朗有強大武力，而且能夠用其地理位置封鎖「荷姆茲」（Hormuz）海峽及阻撓船隻在波斯灣自由航行，讓科威特、巴林、卡達、阿拉伯聯合大公國、沙烏地阿拉伯、伊拉克這些石油國家與天然氣的出口與整體經濟受到嚴重的打擊。
伊朗領導人包括參謀總長Hassan Firouzabadi曾多次警告，如果伊朗受到攻擊，伊朗將「關閉」荷姆茲海峽，伊朗軍隊的菁英「革命衛隊」（Revolutionary Guards）司令Muhammad Ali Jafari更誇張地說其部隊屆時將在波斯灣發動「閃電戰」（Blitzkrieg），給敵人船隻與海軍裝備（Naval equipment）「致命的打擊」（fatal blows）。
8月4日Jafari 宣布伊朗以成功試射300公里的反艦飛彈，並再次放話伊朗如果受攻擊將無限期「封鎖」荷姆茲海峽，回擊美國在波灣基地與船隻。以色列在波灣及世界各地政府與企業界對伊朗的威脅都不敢掉以輕心，因為伊朗如果真的封閉荷姆茲海峽，確會引起全球性的經濟災難，該海峽是船隻進出波斯灣的唯一通道。根據在巴林王國出版的商業週刊The Gulf，每天大約有50艘油輪，載運1400萬到1700萬桶石油與油品通過180公里長的海峽，這個數目占國際間交易的40%。
伊朗有數目可觀的中國製C-801與C-802反艦飛彈佈署在荷姆茲海峽沿岸，這項武器可望在封鎖或控制航道時扮演關鍵角色。通過荷姆茲海峽的航道狹窄，適合使用反艦飛彈，因為海軍或民用船隻採取閃避行動的空間非常有限。
一年來，美國與聯軍曾在波斯灣與阿拉伯海舉行一連串的演習，演練如何應付伊朗封閉該海峽的行動，包括群集小型快艇的閃電攻擊或海面自殺攻擊行動。美國總統布希與國務卿曾多次宣示美國「不排除使用武力」的立場。八月上旬，美國四個航母戰鬥群，英國與法國的艦隊在大西洋進行號稱「硫磺」演習（Operation Brimstone），目的據說是演練將來執行對伊朗的封鎖。
伊朗誇稱已集結一千艘以上的快艇以對付美第五艦隊30到40艘高科技戰艦。使用反艦巡弋飛彈攻擊要比「人海戰術」的威脅更危險；伊朗擁有三艘大型巡洋艦與二十艘高速飛彈戰艦，包括中國所提供的華東（Houdong）快艇。 七月初，伊朗也試射改良型的「流星」（Shahab-3）中程飛彈（誇稱其有2000公里的射程，足以攻擊以色列）及改良型Zelzai和Fatel飛彈。這些中程飛彈的生產可能得到中國的協助。Shahab-3型飛彈源自北韓的「蘆洞」（No-dong）中程飛彈，西方國家情報資料指出中國和伊朗都曾協助No-dong飛彈的研製。早在1997年，中國的「長城」公司（Great Wall Industries Corporaton）即提供伊朗有關飛彈的導引，引擎發動技術與飛彈測試技術。Shahab-3的研發與生產，除了中國以外，也獲得俄國的協助。伊朗也在研發長程，可達到美國的 Shahab-5型彈道飛彈，根據美國情資，中國也插上一腳，提供各種技術上支援。
歐巴馬政府未來對伊朗面臨困難的選項：
（1）如何說服中國與俄國停止協助伊朗研發及製造核子武器與可攜帶核彈頭的長程飛彈，並協助美國與歐盟堆伊朗施壓？
（2）如果這些努力失敗，如何說服或施壓以色列不對伊朗動武，摧毀伊朗核武設施？假以時日，伊朗勢必加入「核武俱樂部」並擁有洲際飛彈。屆時美國、歐盟、以色列及中東國家都將面臨更艱難的抉擇與挑戰。
六、結束伊拉克、阿富汗戰爭
歐巴馬競選過程中矢言早日結束伊拉克戰爭，讓美國大兵返鄉，並主張增兵阿富汗，投入更多資源，他在12月1日宣布任命希拉蕊為新政府國務卿，前北約司令瓊斯擔任國家安全顧問，現任國防部長蓋茲留任至少一年。重整美國國安組合，伊、阿戰爭及美國國安與外交策略會出現什麼重大政策轉變？
可想像的，從伊拉克撤軍時間表，將會有所調整，歐巴馬接受修正他競選時的主張。伊拉克戰爭將近六年，是一泥淖，難以自拔。美國消耗龐大國力，所得結果幾乎都是負面。希拉蕊說「結束伊拉克戰爭是美國恢復全球領袖地位的第一步」；不錯，走為上策，少輸為贏。
對阿富汗的政策，歐巴馬與其國安團隊都有相同的觀點及須改變政策。擔任參議院軍事委員會議員的希拉蕊指出，美國應在阿富汗佈署更多美軍，投入更多資源以提升其安全與巴基斯坦緊密合作，協助巴國防範神學士政權的復甦及打擊開打組織。
曾任北約司令瓊斯稱，「北約在阿富汗不會取勝」的見解得到歐巴馬的重視與引用。根據瓊斯的說法，在阿戰七年，為何美國與其盟友沒有致勝的原因，就是沒有發展出一套導引出重建與其他協助計畫的策略，使得每場戰場上的勝利都是暫時的。蓋茲有相同的見解；他認為布希政府「忘記了美國在越戰學到的教訓」－軍事力量有其侷限性。
不少觀察家指出，阿富汗戰爭已變成白人的戰爭，北約部隊彷彿佔領軍，阿富汗人民每有參與感，美國與歐盟最初所承諾的在阿進行重建，創造就業機會亦未兌現。 阿富汗戰爭已經七年，布希政府曾數度表示將改變策略，卻未真正落實。歐巴馬政府是否能改弦易轍，投注大筆經費與人事，在阿富汗打一場全完不一樣的戰爭？這場戰爭不能迷信軍事力量，而要注重綏靖，增加就業。動員阿富汗人民的參與及提昇民間的力量，這將是一場持久，不可能立竿見影的戰鬥。
七、中國是戰略伙伴或對手？
誰是敵人？誰是朋友？如何團結真正的朋友以對付敵人的威脅是訂定國安策略的首要考慮。布希總統就任前，曾把中國定位為戰略對手；可是在位八年，由於反恐戰爭的需要及美國「重商主義」的政策，改變其理念，對北京的言行有不正確的認知，把中國當成盟友。
歐巴馬與希拉蕊對北京的態度基本上是友善的，但過份天真。一年前，希拉蕊在「外交事務」雙月刊撰文指出，美中關係將是本世紀全球最重要的雙邊關係；她強調中國的支持是達成北韓放棄核武設施協議的重要關鍵，她還主張「我們應該在這個架構上，建立東北亞安全架構」。
北京真的幫了這麼多忙嗎？其在「六邊會談」扮演何種角色？真正瞭解「六邊會談」的專家都認為中國貢獻有限，只是擔任東道主，提供開會場地；「六邊會談」的突破不是在北京達成，而是美國－北韓在 2007年2月的柏林「雙邊會談」。
中國善於偽裝，誤導與欺騙不少人。參與會談的美國官員清楚看透北京利用「六邊會談」拖延敲詐，向華府與平壤討價還價，左右逢源，從中牟利。 北京的一貫手法就是玩弄「兩面派」（double-dealing ）面子裡子都要，欺騙不少美國領導人。
北京一方面在聯合國安理會投票贊成對伊朗實施制裁，逼伊朗停止研發與製造核子武器。另一方面，北京對制裁案拖延、放水，並義正辭嚴主張應利用外交談判與和平解決。更嚴重的是，從1990年代以來，北京就公開和秘密提供伊朗各種飛彈武器系統並協助伊朗發展核武、化武及生化武器。美國中央情報局與國防情報局曾有詳細情資指證中國公然違反國際擴散規定，惟美國高層領導人，包括柯林頓總統對北京的違規視若無睹。
歐巴馬的外交主張包括制止核武擴散，加強與盟國關係及幫助世界各國的民主發展，中國與伊朗是親密的戰略伙伴，可能成為美國制止核武擴散的盟友嗎？中－伊關係是北京在世界開發中國家「烽火外交」的一環，在許多地區擴張其勢力，尋求分散美國力量以共同打擊美國霸權。
除伊朗以外，中國也在中亞組織「上海合作組織」以擴張其政治與經濟勢力並與俄國合作，排斥美國與歐盟在該地區的利益。中國與拉丁美洲的古巴和委內瑞拉是難兄難弟，北京持這些反美的左派國家，與莫斯科聯手與華府對著幹。 中國支持廣受世界人權組織批判的蘇丹政府及辛巴威是另一個中美站在對立面的例子。北京為了取得能源與其他原料不惜提供武器，支持非洲及其他地區的獨裁者。如果歐巴馬政府盼望中國是美國促進人權與民主的伙伴，根本是緣木求魚。
美國多位國防部長包括蓋茲和他前任、歷任太平洋艦隊司令，均多次質疑幾年來中國亟力擴軍與軍事現代化的真正動機，他們對中國國防預算與軍事政策缺乏透明化表示疑慮。就因為這樣，美國一方面呼籲中國應該善盡世界大國的國際責任（responsible international stakeholder）；另一方面美國也不得不採取「兩面下注」策略（hedging strategy），在太平洋地區（以關島為基地）「調兵遣將」，佈署六個航母戰鬥群及三分之二核子潛艇，預防和遏止中國對台灣或其他國家動武。美國和日本在2005年2月舉行「2＋2」會議，及發佈維護亞太地區的和平、安全及現狀的政策，歐巴馬政府應該重申，因為有助於維持本地區的和平與安全。
中國是友？是敵？美國新的領導人對北京應聽其言，觀其行，不必先入為主。
2008年12月3日 星期三
2008年11月12日 星期三
China’s Policy Toward Iran
Major powers deliberated on September 19 2008, in Washington over a fourth sound of UN sanctions against Iran to curb its nuclear program, but ended with no firm commitments amid Chinese and Russian opposition to more punitive measures.
Robert Wood, State Department spokesman, told the press that the meeting of senior officials from the permanent five members of the UN Security Council and Germany concluded without agreement on either the timing or content of a new UN resolution on Iran. He was quoted by Reuters (September 19, 2008) to say that the six major powers“remain committed to explore possible further measures on the second tracks,” referring to sanctions under consideration by the six. Wood added that they again urged Iran to accept an offer of trade and other incentives presented in June by an European Union representative in exchange for giving up uranium enrichment. Iran has thus for rejected the offer and stated it will not give up sensitive nuclear work.
On several occasions, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad has brushed aside the threats of more sanctions on his country. He told a news conference in Teheran on September 18 that “whatever they do, Iran will continue its activities. Sanctions are not important, the era of such threats has ended.” Nejad made clear Iran had no plans to suspend uranium enrichment, which can have both civilian and military purposes.
UN’s international Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)stated in a report on September 15 2008 that due to Iranian authorities’ stonewalling and obstruction, its investigation into whether Iran had covertly researched ways to make an atom bomb had come to a standstill. Commenting on the report, Stephen Hadley, President George W. Bush’s National Security Adviser, said it was “not reassuring” that Iran was not cooperating with the IAEA, adding that such a move only increased suspicions in the international community about Iran’s nuclear program. On the other hand, however, Nejad told Iran’s state Pres TV that the IAEA report had confirmed the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program and that Teheran had cooperated with the UN agency with “full transparency”(Reuters, September 18, 2008). He also said the IAEA had no mandate to consider Western intelligence, which claims that Iran had linked projects to process uranium, test high explosives and modify a missile cone in a way suitable for a nuclear warhand.
Iran has withstood three rounds of limited UN sanctions imposed so far. It can count on China, a longstanding and staunch alley of Iran, and Russia, now at odds with the West over George, to delay, obstruct, and water down any harsher measures sought by the EU and the US. If the past experience can serve as a guide, the fourth round of UN sanctions against Iran would be an ordeal, taking month and month of negotiations and haggling, going through comma by comma, and the end result might be another toothless resolution.
China has been on the record opposing UN sanctions against its friends, such as Iran, North Korea or Sudan, over the years. Chinese President Hu Jintao urged world powers on September 6, 2008 to show flexibility to resolve a prolonged stand off over Teherad’s nuclear program, when he met president Ahmadi Nejad after the Iranian president arrived in Beijing for a one day visit to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Paralympics. Hu said China respected Iran’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy and called for further diplomacy. “At present, the Iran nuclear issue is faced with a rare opportunity for the resumption of talks, and we hope all parties concerned could seize the opportunity and show flexibility to push for a peaceful settlement of the issues,” Xinhua news agency (September 6, 2008) quoted Hu as saying. “China, as always, will be committed to pushing for the settlement of the issue through peaceful negotiations, and will continue to play a constructive role to this end,” Hu added.
According to Xinhua, the Iranian leader told Hu that he hoped a solution acceptable to all parties could be found, “and that the Iran side is willing to keep exchanges and consultations with the Chinese side.”
Some Western observers regard China, a long time ally of Iran and a major buyer of Iranian oil and gas, as key to breaking the diplomatic impasse. In reality, however, Beijing has its own agenda toward Iran and the Middle East, hence it has been reluctant to consider steps and make moves that might hurt its critical strategic ties with Iran and endanger its crucial energy and economic interests.
China’s Strategic Objectives
Since the Shah’s ouster in the late 1970’s Beijing has viewed Iran’s Islamic Republic a potential political ally and sought to cultivate and forge a strategic partnership with Teheran. In addition to being a major source of energy, Iran is an important regional power, capable of playing a leading role in the diplomatic balance in the Gulf region and Middle East, hence a highly valuable anti-Western partner for China. Both China and Iran share the belief that “my enemy’s enemy is my friend,” and they have cooperated to challenge and counter balance US domination and hegemonism.
One instrument that China has utilized to almost perfection is transfer of arms and weapon technology, which greatly adds to China’s ability to win friends and enhance influence quickly, and earn billions of dollars each year. In some cases, Beijing has adopted an “arms for oil” formula, providing weapons in exchange for oil from Iran and Sudan. China’s extensive arms sales to Iran since the 1980s have bolstered Iranian military and weapon production capabilities considerably, with long term and far reaching consequence on the balance of power in the Middle East. Iran arms and sponsors terrorist groups in Iran and other Gulf states and a well-knows patron of the Hizballah guerrillas in Lebanon (sometime in cooperation with Syria), hence a major threat to both the Arab states and Israel, as well as the U.S.
Iran’s acquisition of advanced conventional weapons from China has also posed immense threat to American ships and 15,000 U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf. In the fall of 1987, Iran fired Chinese-made cruise missiles, the “Silkworms”, at two US oil tankers in the Gulf. In the 1980s, Poly Group, a Chinese arms company controlled by the PLA, exported more than $1 billion worth of Silkworms to Iran(Newsweek, July 4, 1988). The Silkworm has been succeeded by the Chinese Eagle strike missile in the 1990s, a much more sophisticated and dangerous weapon modeled on the French Exocet. The new cruise missile has two versions, a solid-fuel, rocket-powered model (designated C-801 by NATO) and a longer range turbojet-powered model(C-802). In 1996, Iran obtained from China Hou dong fast patrol boats which were equipped with C-802. In the late 1990s, two of Iranian Houdong missile patrol boats carried out simulated high-speed attack against the US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and the cruiser Cowpens. Such kind of Iranian provocation occurred again in recent months.
Iran has repeatedly vowed a crushing response to any attacks and it has flexed military muscles in recent months by holding war games and showing off an array of weaponry and missiles. During war games in July 2008, aides to the supreme leader Ayatollak Alikhamenei warned that Iran would target US boats and US ships in the Gulf as well as Israel if it was attacked(Khaleej Times, September 1, 2008).
Indeed, there are acute worries in the Gulf region and elsewhere that Iran could cause a global economic catastrophe if it carried out its repeated threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. A horse shoe-shape of water that stretches between Iran and the northern tip of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is the only way in end out of the Gulf. According to The Gulf, a Bahrain business weekly, on a typical day, around 50 tankers carrying between 14 million and 17 million barrels of oil and oil products pass through the 180 km-long strait, roughly 40 percent of the world’s internationally traded supplies (Gulf Daily News, August 24, 2008).
Iran has large number of Chinese made C-801 and C-802 anti-ship missiles deployed in coastal batteries along the eastern shore of the waterway, aboard and on islands in the Strait. These are expected to play a key role in any effort to block, or control, the waterway. The shipping lanes are known to be narrow, ideal to use anti ship missiles, as naval or civilian vessels have little room for evasive action. Over the past year, coalition naval forces in the Gulf and the Arabian sea have conducted a series of exercise aimed at countering possible Iranian attempts to close Hormuz. These include attacks by large swarms of small, high-speed armed craft or maritime suicide attacks.
Iran claimed that it had amassed a fleet of 1,000 low-tech speedboats to counter the Fifth Fleet’s armada of 30-40 high-tech warships. Broadsides of cruise missiles would be more dangerous. Iran has 3 frigates and 20 fast attack craft including Chinese-supplied Houdong boats, capable of mounting such attacks.
In the summer months of 2008, Iran also test-fired its Shahab-3 missile which it says put Israel within range (Khaleej Times, September 1, 2008). Such an intermediate-range ballistic missile and much longer range versions, the Shahab 4 and 5, which could reach the US, are under development with China’s assistance. On February 4, 2009, New York Times reported that Iran had successfully launched its first so–called domestically produced satellite—an indication that Iran had made considerable progress in its ballistic missile system.
It should be emphasized that the Sino-Iranian cooperation on arms deals is not confined to conventional weapons, it also includes “NBC”-- nuclear weapons technology, biological weapons and chemical weapons. Whereas Beijing has vehemently denied its sales of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology to the rogue states, international intelligent agencies have collected enough information that identifies China as the world’s “leading proliferator”. For diplomatic and other important reasons, the US and Eu rarely blow whistle on China’s illicit arms sales to the rogue states and its outrageous violation of international anti-proliferation goals.
There are exceptions, however. On June 25, 2008 the top Asian official at the Pentagon told the US House of Representatives Armed Service Committee that Chinese firms have repeatedly violated UN sanctions which ban the sales of weapons, military equipment and nuclear technology to Iran, and “China’s willingness to cooperate on these is uneven” (AFP, Washington June 27,2008), James Shinn, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for –Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, said he was particularly concerned over China’s sales of weapons to Iran, accusing Teheran of supporting militant groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan. “ that target and kill American and our allies.”
From time to time, the U.S. have sanctioned Chinese companies for selling Iran weapons, weapons-related products and other duel-use commodities that can have military use, and Beijing has condemned those US moves.
Sino-Iranian Energy and Economic Ties
In response to US pressure, some European companies have cut their trade with Iran or withdrawn investment. Royal Dutch Shell and Repsol of Spain withdrew last year. In early July 2008, French oil giant Total announced that it would pull out of a planned investment in a huge gas project in Iran’s South Pars gas field. As Western companies move out, Chinese firms step in to fill the void and take the business. On July 28, 2008, Iran’s Pars Oil and Gas company and China National offshore Oil Corp. announced an agreement to exploit North Pas gas field, and plan to start to sell the gas from the North Pass gas field in international markets soon.
China is Iran s’ top oil market. Iran is China’s third-largest supplier, behind only Angola and Saudi Arabia, exporting about 300,000 barrels of oil to China. Moreover, China’s oil giant Sinopec Group is going to buy 250 million tons of natural gas in 30 years from Iran, and will help Iran develop its huge Yadavaran oilfield in exchange for Iran’s commitment of exporting 150,000 barrels of oil per day to China for 25 years at market price.
In addition to energy field, China is also involved extensively in many areas of Iran’s economic development. More than 100 Chinese state companies are working in Iran to help build infrastructure projects-- highways, ports, shipyards, airports, dams, steel complex and many other projects. When Teheran’s subway was completed in February 2000, Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan was present for the opening ribbon-cutting ceremony. Likewise President Jiang Zemin made a state visit to Teheran in April 2002 to cement ties with Iran.
A casual visitor to Teheran is impressed by the supply of Chinese products in the supermarkets and department stores. Two-way trade between the two nations has reached 11 billion dollars in 2008, surpassing 9.5 billion in 2007. China is already Iran’s second largest trading partner, behind only the UAE. It goes without saying that Beijing outright violates UN sanctions on Iran.
China, Iran, and Russia have overlapping interests on many issues. They are partners to the Asian Energy Security Grid, an alterative to US-led Western control of the world’s energy resources. Iran has also joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) as an observer.
Iran’s president Ahmadi Nejad was present when the SCO convened annual a summit meetings in 2007 and 2008. The organization is largely a Chinese tool to counter US presence in Central Asia and promote Beijing’s interests.
Is China a U.S. friend of foe? President George Bush once considered China a strategic rival, but he gradually changed his view, as the U.S. sought China’s cooperation on the war against terror after 2001, and pursued a mercantilistic policy toward China. Before Bush completed his tenure in the White House, China was treated more like an important partner on many issues, while China’s possible threat to American interests and US-China differences were minimized or overlooked.
How will the U.S-China relations evolve under the Obama administration? Secretary of state Hillary Clinton asserted in an article published in Foreign Affairs in 2007 that US-China relations would be the most important bilateral relationship in the globe in this century and lauded China’s role on the break through in North Korea’s nuclear weapon at the six-nation talks.
Granted that she was only a U.S. Senator then, and not well informed on US-China relations, nor on the six-party talk on North Korea, yet those remarks seem to betray her naivete and wishful thinking. Whereas Beijing voted for UN sanctions on Iran’s suspicious nuclear program, China outright violated these sanctions by providing Iran with various economic and military assistance, including weapons, NBC and missile technologies.
President Obama’s Foreign policy calls for nonproliferation of nuclear arms and assistance to the development of democracy in the world, among others. Both Iran and Syria are China’s important allies, will China ever work with the U.S to stop two Middle Eastern states from developing their nuclear arms?
Although Beijing and Washington are not at present involved in an open confrontation in the Middle East, the potentials for Sino-US conflict over Iran’s nuclear weapons, proliferation and China’s growing strategic influence in the Middle East should not be overlooked.Nor should the US ignore the fact that China has its own agenda toward the Middle East—an agenda which forges close relations with Iran and Syria, and challenges US policy and interests in the region.
Robert Wood, State Department spokesman, told the press that the meeting of senior officials from the permanent five members of the UN Security Council and Germany concluded without agreement on either the timing or content of a new UN resolution on Iran. He was quoted by Reuters (September 19, 2008) to say that the six major powers“remain committed to explore possible further measures on the second tracks,” referring to sanctions under consideration by the six. Wood added that they again urged Iran to accept an offer of trade and other incentives presented in June by an European Union representative in exchange for giving up uranium enrichment. Iran has thus for rejected the offer and stated it will not give up sensitive nuclear work.
On several occasions, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad has brushed aside the threats of more sanctions on his country. He told a news conference in Teheran on September 18 that “whatever they do, Iran will continue its activities. Sanctions are not important, the era of such threats has ended.” Nejad made clear Iran had no plans to suspend uranium enrichment, which can have both civilian and military purposes.
UN’s international Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)stated in a report on September 15 2008 that due to Iranian authorities’ stonewalling and obstruction, its investigation into whether Iran had covertly researched ways to make an atom bomb had come to a standstill. Commenting on the report, Stephen Hadley, President George W. Bush’s National Security Adviser, said it was “not reassuring” that Iran was not cooperating with the IAEA, adding that such a move only increased suspicions in the international community about Iran’s nuclear program. On the other hand, however, Nejad told Iran’s state Pres TV that the IAEA report had confirmed the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program and that Teheran had cooperated with the UN agency with “full transparency”(Reuters, September 18, 2008). He also said the IAEA had no mandate to consider Western intelligence, which claims that Iran had linked projects to process uranium, test high explosives and modify a missile cone in a way suitable for a nuclear warhand.
Iran has withstood three rounds of limited UN sanctions imposed so far. It can count on China, a longstanding and staunch alley of Iran, and Russia, now at odds with the West over George, to delay, obstruct, and water down any harsher measures sought by the EU and the US. If the past experience can serve as a guide, the fourth round of UN sanctions against Iran would be an ordeal, taking month and month of negotiations and haggling, going through comma by comma, and the end result might be another toothless resolution.
China has been on the record opposing UN sanctions against its friends, such as Iran, North Korea or Sudan, over the years. Chinese President Hu Jintao urged world powers on September 6, 2008 to show flexibility to resolve a prolonged stand off over Teherad’s nuclear program, when he met president Ahmadi Nejad after the Iranian president arrived in Beijing for a one day visit to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Paralympics. Hu said China respected Iran’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy and called for further diplomacy. “At present, the Iran nuclear issue is faced with a rare opportunity for the resumption of talks, and we hope all parties concerned could seize the opportunity and show flexibility to push for a peaceful settlement of the issues,” Xinhua news agency (September 6, 2008) quoted Hu as saying. “China, as always, will be committed to pushing for the settlement of the issue through peaceful negotiations, and will continue to play a constructive role to this end,” Hu added.
According to Xinhua, the Iranian leader told Hu that he hoped a solution acceptable to all parties could be found, “and that the Iran side is willing to keep exchanges and consultations with the Chinese side.”
Some Western observers regard China, a long time ally of Iran and a major buyer of Iranian oil and gas, as key to breaking the diplomatic impasse. In reality, however, Beijing has its own agenda toward Iran and the Middle East, hence it has been reluctant to consider steps and make moves that might hurt its critical strategic ties with Iran and endanger its crucial energy and economic interests.
China’s Strategic Objectives
Since the Shah’s ouster in the late 1970’s Beijing has viewed Iran’s Islamic Republic a potential political ally and sought to cultivate and forge a strategic partnership with Teheran. In addition to being a major source of energy, Iran is an important regional power, capable of playing a leading role in the diplomatic balance in the Gulf region and Middle East, hence a highly valuable anti-Western partner for China. Both China and Iran share the belief that “my enemy’s enemy is my friend,” and they have cooperated to challenge and counter balance US domination and hegemonism.
One instrument that China has utilized to almost perfection is transfer of arms and weapon technology, which greatly adds to China’s ability to win friends and enhance influence quickly, and earn billions of dollars each year. In some cases, Beijing has adopted an “arms for oil” formula, providing weapons in exchange for oil from Iran and Sudan. China’s extensive arms sales to Iran since the 1980s have bolstered Iranian military and weapon production capabilities considerably, with long term and far reaching consequence on the balance of power in the Middle East. Iran arms and sponsors terrorist groups in Iran and other Gulf states and a well-knows patron of the Hizballah guerrillas in Lebanon (sometime in cooperation with Syria), hence a major threat to both the Arab states and Israel, as well as the U.S.
Iran’s acquisition of advanced conventional weapons from China has also posed immense threat to American ships and 15,000 U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf. In the fall of 1987, Iran fired Chinese-made cruise missiles, the “Silkworms”, at two US oil tankers in the Gulf. In the 1980s, Poly Group, a Chinese arms company controlled by the PLA, exported more than $1 billion worth of Silkworms to Iran(Newsweek, July 4, 1988). The Silkworm has been succeeded by the Chinese Eagle strike missile in the 1990s, a much more sophisticated and dangerous weapon modeled on the French Exocet. The new cruise missile has two versions, a solid-fuel, rocket-powered model (designated C-801 by NATO) and a longer range turbojet-powered model(C-802). In 1996, Iran obtained from China Hou dong fast patrol boats which were equipped with C-802. In the late 1990s, two of Iranian Houdong missile patrol boats carried out simulated high-speed attack against the US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and the cruiser Cowpens. Such kind of Iranian provocation occurred again in recent months.
Iran has repeatedly vowed a crushing response to any attacks and it has flexed military muscles in recent months by holding war games and showing off an array of weaponry and missiles. During war games in July 2008, aides to the supreme leader Ayatollak Alikhamenei warned that Iran would target US boats and US ships in the Gulf as well as Israel if it was attacked(Khaleej Times, September 1, 2008).
Indeed, there are acute worries in the Gulf region and elsewhere that Iran could cause a global economic catastrophe if it carried out its repeated threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. A horse shoe-shape of water that stretches between Iran and the northern tip of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is the only way in end out of the Gulf. According to The Gulf, a Bahrain business weekly, on a typical day, around 50 tankers carrying between 14 million and 17 million barrels of oil and oil products pass through the 180 km-long strait, roughly 40 percent of the world’s internationally traded supplies (Gulf Daily News, August 24, 2008).
Iran has large number of Chinese made C-801 and C-802 anti-ship missiles deployed in coastal batteries along the eastern shore of the waterway, aboard and on islands in the Strait. These are expected to play a key role in any effort to block, or control, the waterway. The shipping lanes are known to be narrow, ideal to use anti ship missiles, as naval or civilian vessels have little room for evasive action. Over the past year, coalition naval forces in the Gulf and the Arabian sea have conducted a series of exercise aimed at countering possible Iranian attempts to close Hormuz. These include attacks by large swarms of small, high-speed armed craft or maritime suicide attacks.
Iran claimed that it had amassed a fleet of 1,000 low-tech speedboats to counter the Fifth Fleet’s armada of 30-40 high-tech warships. Broadsides of cruise missiles would be more dangerous. Iran has 3 frigates and 20 fast attack craft including Chinese-supplied Houdong boats, capable of mounting such attacks.
In the summer months of 2008, Iran also test-fired its Shahab-3 missile which it says put Israel within range (Khaleej Times, September 1, 2008). Such an intermediate-range ballistic missile and much longer range versions, the Shahab 4 and 5, which could reach the US, are under development with China’s assistance. On February 4, 2009, New York Times reported that Iran had successfully launched its first so–called domestically produced satellite—an indication that Iran had made considerable progress in its ballistic missile system.
It should be emphasized that the Sino-Iranian cooperation on arms deals is not confined to conventional weapons, it also includes “NBC”-- nuclear weapons technology, biological weapons and chemical weapons. Whereas Beijing has vehemently denied its sales of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile technology to the rogue states, international intelligent agencies have collected enough information that identifies China as the world’s “leading proliferator”. For diplomatic and other important reasons, the US and Eu rarely blow whistle on China’s illicit arms sales to the rogue states and its outrageous violation of international anti-proliferation goals.
There are exceptions, however. On June 25, 2008 the top Asian official at the Pentagon told the US House of Representatives Armed Service Committee that Chinese firms have repeatedly violated UN sanctions which ban the sales of weapons, military equipment and nuclear technology to Iran, and “China’s willingness to cooperate on these is uneven” (AFP, Washington June 27,2008), James Shinn, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for –Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, said he was particularly concerned over China’s sales of weapons to Iran, accusing Teheran of supporting militant groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan. “ that target and kill American and our allies.”
From time to time, the U.S. have sanctioned Chinese companies for selling Iran weapons, weapons-related products and other duel-use commodities that can have military use, and Beijing has condemned those US moves.
Sino-Iranian Energy and Economic Ties
In response to US pressure, some European companies have cut their trade with Iran or withdrawn investment. Royal Dutch Shell and Repsol of Spain withdrew last year. In early July 2008, French oil giant Total announced that it would pull out of a planned investment in a huge gas project in Iran’s South Pars gas field. As Western companies move out, Chinese firms step in to fill the void and take the business. On July 28, 2008, Iran’s Pars Oil and Gas company and China National offshore Oil Corp. announced an agreement to exploit North Pas gas field, and plan to start to sell the gas from the North Pass gas field in international markets soon.
China is Iran s’ top oil market. Iran is China’s third-largest supplier, behind only Angola and Saudi Arabia, exporting about 300,000 barrels of oil to China. Moreover, China’s oil giant Sinopec Group is going to buy 250 million tons of natural gas in 30 years from Iran, and will help Iran develop its huge Yadavaran oilfield in exchange for Iran’s commitment of exporting 150,000 barrels of oil per day to China for 25 years at market price.
In addition to energy field, China is also involved extensively in many areas of Iran’s economic development. More than 100 Chinese state companies are working in Iran to help build infrastructure projects-- highways, ports, shipyards, airports, dams, steel complex and many other projects. When Teheran’s subway was completed in February 2000, Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan was present for the opening ribbon-cutting ceremony. Likewise President Jiang Zemin made a state visit to Teheran in April 2002 to cement ties with Iran.
A casual visitor to Teheran is impressed by the supply of Chinese products in the supermarkets and department stores. Two-way trade between the two nations has reached 11 billion dollars in 2008, surpassing 9.5 billion in 2007. China is already Iran’s second largest trading partner, behind only the UAE. It goes without saying that Beijing outright violates UN sanctions on Iran.
China, Iran, and Russia have overlapping interests on many issues. They are partners to the Asian Energy Security Grid, an alterative to US-led Western control of the world’s energy resources. Iran has also joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) as an observer.
Iran’s president Ahmadi Nejad was present when the SCO convened annual a summit meetings in 2007 and 2008. The organization is largely a Chinese tool to counter US presence in Central Asia and promote Beijing’s interests.
Is China a U.S. friend of foe? President George Bush once considered China a strategic rival, but he gradually changed his view, as the U.S. sought China’s cooperation on the war against terror after 2001, and pursued a mercantilistic policy toward China. Before Bush completed his tenure in the White House, China was treated more like an important partner on many issues, while China’s possible threat to American interests and US-China differences were minimized or overlooked.
How will the U.S-China relations evolve under the Obama administration? Secretary of state Hillary Clinton asserted in an article published in Foreign Affairs in 2007 that US-China relations would be the most important bilateral relationship in the globe in this century and lauded China’s role on the break through in North Korea’s nuclear weapon at the six-nation talks.
Granted that she was only a U.S. Senator then, and not well informed on US-China relations, nor on the six-party talk on North Korea, yet those remarks seem to betray her naivete and wishful thinking. Whereas Beijing voted for UN sanctions on Iran’s suspicious nuclear program, China outright violated these sanctions by providing Iran with various economic and military assistance, including weapons, NBC and missile technologies.
President Obama’s Foreign policy calls for nonproliferation of nuclear arms and assistance to the development of democracy in the world, among others. Both Iran and Syria are China’s important allies, will China ever work with the U.S to stop two Middle Eastern states from developing their nuclear arms?
Although Beijing and Washington are not at present involved in an open confrontation in the Middle East, the potentials for Sino-US conflict over Iran’s nuclear weapons, proliferation and China’s growing strategic influence in the Middle East should not be overlooked.Nor should the US ignore the fact that China has its own agenda toward the Middle East—an agenda which forges close relations with Iran and Syria, and challenges US policy and interests in the region.
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